13.01.202112:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of EUR/USD on January 13. Not everything is Trump's fault

Exchange Rates 13.01.2021 analysis

The wave pattern of the EUR/USD pair has already completed its five-wave form. Thus, we can now expect the start of a new section of downward trend. If the current assumption is right, then the quotes will further decline to the targets located around the 19th and 18th mark. However, it should be recalled that the demand for the US dollar in recent months has been very low, so the upward trend section of the trend might rather continue to be complicated.

Exchange Rates 13.01.2021 analysis

At the same time, the wave pattern in the smaller time frame also indicates that the upward section of the trend is already done. The expected wave 5 in 5 managed to fully complete its form. Now, a successful attempt to break through the low of the expected wave 4 will indicate that the pair is ready to form the three wave sections of the downward trend. So far, everything is inclined to the beginning of a new part of the trend, which is perhaps a correction. In any case, the formation of three downward waves is expected.

It's been six days since the Capitol attack, which is enough time for passions to subside. All participants in this significant event have already given their comments. However, it was not limited to just one comment. Despite the fact that Donald Trump had only two weeks to remain in office at that time, the Democrats decided that it was a great chance to try to impeach the US President. Now, the US Congress will vote to remove Mr. Trump on January 13, that is, today. If the Lower House of Congress approves the impeachment, then the final say will remain with the Upper House – the Senate, which has already saved Trump from impeachment once. Few people believe that at least 16 Republican senators will vote against Trump this time, who in any case will leave his post in a week. Thus, I think the whole impeachment process is just another drama. Moreover, US Vice President Mike Pence seems to have the same opinion. He refused to apply the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which allows him to remove the president from his duties. He believes that this course of action is not in the interests of the country or in accordance with our Constitution. Thus, the US vice president also understands perfectly that it is pointless to remove Trump now that he has only one week left to serve as president.

From the point of view of technical analysis, the US dollar has temporarily stopped rising, but the current wave marking indicates at least one more downward wave that should be built. Thus, a new decline in the quotes' pair should be expected.

Today, ECB's Chairman Christine Lagarde is scheduled to make a speech, which is likely to contain something important.

Overall conclusion and recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is assumed to have completed the upward section again. At the moment, it is suggested to sell EUR/USD with targets near the level of 1.20 and 1.19 at every bearish signal of the MACD indicator. So far, everything does not look like a simple corrective wave, but rather the end of the upward trend. But will this extend?

*Analisis pasar yang diposting disini dimaksudkan untuk meningkatkan pengetahuan Anda namun tidak untuk memberi instruksi trading.

Chin Zhao,
Ahli analisa
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